Your work and life on AI
How AI could impact our jobs and lives
I was recently chatting with a VP at a prominent European FMCG. The discussion veered towards the future in general. He then said something that gave me pause : “I am not sure my position [at the company] will exist in 10 years”. When I asked him why, he replied : “Technologies”. For context, he is heading the management control department of that company.
In this paper we will explore the ways in which our lives will be affected by the technology revolution happening before our eyes. This article will be done in instalments. The first chapter will focus on our corporate and our social lives. The second will discuss how the corporations themselves will be affected and the third will consider the government action.
The news abounds with reports of companies making moves that can be traced back, in part, to the recent developments in technology. For example, IBM just announced a hiring freeze for positions that can be “replaced by AI”. Generative models, which are programs that can amass vast amounts of data and simulate the creation of new content such as texts, photos, and sounds, have become more widespread, allowing a wider public to experience the potential of artificial intelligence firsthand.
As a result, it is easy to understand that artificial intelligence will profoundly impact how we work. This new paradigm will also remodel the fabric of our societies. The impact of AI will be felt over time, as it is gradually integrated into various industries and aspects of society.
Phase 1: Darwinism in the work place
This phase has already started.
With layoffs and hiring freezes, companies are shrinking their ranks. A struggle among workers to be among the happy few who survive job cuts will inevitably ensue.
I surmise that the T shaped individual will be the greatest winner of this battle. A T shaped professional is someone with a deep knowledge in one field complemented with related skills (e.g., a marketer who is able to run segmentation analysis on his own). On the other hand an I shaped professional is hyper-specialized. Companies will prioritise the multitasking individual for an obvious reason: he will be able to accomplish the tasks that would have required many people, many interactions, faster.
Many AI tools abound to help create products from the ideation to their submission to the market. Let us consider the fictitious example of a marketer who wants to build a new app. AI will turn her requirements into a mock application that she will adjust to her liking. They will cooperate on the coding of the app (in a no-code interface). The testing will be handled automatically. She will conduct user research with AI assistance: it will read its database of related projects and suggest some changes in the overall user experience. The marketing of the new application will be handled by the pair as the AI copilot would have already chosen the segments and suggested the medium and copy to push. All these actions require different talents — and people — today, but chances are, that will no longer be the case, in the medium term.
The individuals in the workplace who will demonstrate those abilities such as extended functional knowledge and interaction with the AI tools will retain their job the longest. Hence, retraining to acquire new skills is an option to consider. Soon, workers could be rushing in higher numbers, to schools and online course providers to extend their skill set.
But will the AI be able to supersede those “survivors” and take away all our jobs? I tend to think that will not the case. And this for 2 main reasons:
- Some activities are difficult to codify and reproduce either because they do not follow a clear framework (e.g., craftsmanship, politicians) or because the worker is completely free to chose the orientation he wants to give is work (e.g., researchers).
- Some activities have a strong social dimension. For example, a priest is safe keep his job: I have a hard time imagining a robot leading the Sunday mass. That would be rather unorthodox. Similarly, while psychologists and teachers may have job security, the very long-term impact of AI and automation on these professions is still unclear and subject to change. I even suspect that with the changes in our societies, psychologist will be in high demand.
Phase 2: Natural selection
In the first phase, people were competing against one another, but this time jobs will be disrupted due to their inherent characteristics. Some jobs — fulfilled by human beings — will be fundamentally unable to create enough value compared to what machines can do, and as a result, will be disrupted over the next decade or so.
Above is a representation to help understand how different types of jobs may be affected by AI. Here is how to read this framework:
1- As economist Larry Summers puts it “the cognitive class will be hit first by the AI tsunami, before the other work classes”. Jobs in the upper right quadrant have a high cognitive component (i.e., if you spend all day in front of a computer, your job might well be in this category). These jobs are “easy” to automate through AI. For example, a financial analyst (who creates models in a back-office setting, without interactions with customers) might want to extend his job description: the activity is reproductible; AI algorithms can analyze data and generate insights that were previously done by humans.
2- In the lower right quadrant, we have the typical blue collar job. although codified these jobs are waiting for robotics to become fully “autonomous” to replace them. For now, robots are not able to perform some tasks (i.e., handling delicate items), cannot adapt to unexpected events or are too expensive: a T-shirt factory with human workers in a third world country is more cost-effective.
3- Low cognition activities s(i.e., with a greater dependence on manual tasks), difficult to codify by nature, will enjoy a longer useful life. A craftsman follows steps to create his pieces that no other does. These jobs are inherently creative. Trying to standardise them will not make economic sense.
4- The upper left quadrant hosts jobs that are cognitive in nature but do not follow a set pattern. For example, researchers are completely free to orient their analyses. They also enjoy a high degree of freedom in how they conduct their researches. They can be assisted by the AI.
5- “Social jobs” are occupations involving close or prolonged human interactions (salespeople, nurses, priests). We believe they will be safest for two reasons.
- Due to a phenomenon that occurs when we interact with robots that have human-like appearances. The “uncanny valley” is a term used to describe the relationship between the human-like appearance of a robotic object and the emotional response it evokes. More precisely, the theory is about the emotional response we have towards robots that resemble humans. It proposes that when we see a robot with human-like features (mind-perception), we automatically add a mind to it. A growing sense that a machine appears to have a mind leads to the creepy feeling(2). Whether this theory holds is not the point. The point is: people feel discomfort in the presence of a human-like robot.
- Another reason “social jobs” will be “safer” is simply our construct as a species: we are a social beings. Consider this scenario: put some strangers in a room. Give them enough time or to accelerate things, give them a problem to solve. They will form a social organisation. This is the reason why we will prefer to interact with our peers — whenever possible — instead of having a soulless machine. We will collectively choose to prioritise human interactions over those with machines, thus preserving “social jobs”.
As an illustration to my point, you will find a link, below in the sources, to a video: a woman in China destroys an hospitality bot out of frustration for having to interact with a robot before she can access a doctor(3).
Phase 3: A brave new world
One generation from now, we will begin to see the effects of the changes that are happening today on the way we live in our societies. Of course, cultures and other factors will influence these changes, but let’s focus on what I believe will be the changes caused by technology disruptions.
First, because jobs will be lost to machines, many people will be without activity. This fact could lead to communities becoming more tightly-knit. People will be more inclined to participate in the neighbourhood’s social events. We will use our imagination to combat “collective boredom”. I do not expect all of us to binge-watch TV shows, but inevitably, some will. I suspect that spirituality, in its many forms, will regain our attention. We will also be more cautious about our health.
Second, Family structure will also be affected. with more time on hand and resources that will be capped to the necessary, we will find it more sound to take back our “abuelos” back into our homes; more people will mean more resources to share in the house. Obviously, this prediction will only hold true if governments do the sensible thing: tax corporate income more and share the proceedings among individuals in the scheme similar to basic income. We have to keep in mind that basic income will mean “basic”: government will not be overly generous. We will not be paid amounts so that we can make huge savings; but enough to ensure social stability. Paying people too much would not make a lot of economic sense. Think inflation. To supplement their income, some individuals may turn to local craftsmanship and small jobs. Some activities will be sanctuarized such as the barber in your neighbourhood — because that is one of the places where we will meet. We will take our elderly in our houses also because we will have more free time to care for them.
In the next paper we will discuss how corporations will reorganise themselves to profit the most from technology progress.
TLDR;
The AI revolution will indeniably change our work, life and social organisations.
On the the “work” aspect:
- To remain competitive in the job market, it may be beneficial to become a power-user of new tools that can increase productivity, such as virtual assistants for lawyers or website builders for developers;
- In the medium to long term, it will be important to be a specialized generalist to remain relevant in the job market. This means acquiring adjacent knowledge and skills, such as a technology project manager learning how to build applications with no-code tools, designing products, and querying databases to segment a customer base. Similarly, a financial advisor should expand his skillset to other domains and tools.
- In the very long term, some individuals may find government subsidies insufficient or long for the days when work was a defining aspect of a person’s life. For these individuals, having a job with a prominent social dimension, such as nursing or sports, may be appealing.
On the social side:
- We will be chasing more social activities even pro-bono to combat collective boredom;
- Our families could become larger as we would take back in our grandparents because we will have more time at hand and will want to mutualize resources.
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